Here's what $223,000 - the average price of a home in HRM -could buy you this year: a townhouse in Clayton Park, a three-bedroom home in Lower Sackville, a two-bedroom house with garage in Beaver Bank or a 70-year-old property on the Halifax peninsula.

Last year, equivalent properties cost about $215,000 and next year, they could jump to $230,000.

That's what the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is forecasting in its annual housing market outlook for Halifax. CMHC released its predictions yesterday to a crowd of more than 330 developers, builders, lenders and other housing professionals at its housing outlook conference.

Overall, the market should remain active with high employment levels, increases in wages and high consumer confidence. Low mortgage rates and economic strength will sustain the market at near previous record levels, despite a projected dip in sales.

CMHC senior market analyst Matthew Gilmore said multiple listing service (MLS) sales should start coming off their record high in 2008, dropping 6.3 per cent from last year. He called 2007 a year of change because it saw a reversal of previous trends in such areas as housing starts.

Price growth in 2008 is expected to slow, but homes in the higher end of the market should see a boost. House prices will still outpace inflation, though, with projected three to four per cent growth.

Gilmore noted that housing starts for single-family dwellings have been declining over the last six to seven years because of changing demographics and the rising cost of new construction. With the decline of the traditional family, the demand for smaller homes is rising.

"There seems to be a clear preference in young professionals to be closer to work and have a little bit more quality of life and not be commuting quite as far. What's available close to work in the downtown core is multi-residential and apartment-style living," Gilmore told reporters.

"With an aging population, we're seeing a similar kind of demand. Older folks, as they age, they're looking for something that might be lower-maintenance, closer to amenities, closer to entertainment, closer to hospital care and just less need for space in general."

Renters can take advantage of vacancy rates that will be a bit higher than normal. Average rents for a two-bedroom unit, however, could climb from $815 to $840 per month.

amacdonald@hfxnews.ca

BRIAN FLINN

Halifax is a city of come-from-aways. It's widely known that Nova Scotia's capital lags behind larger Canadian cities in attracting immigrants from other countries. But few realize Halifax is near the top for drawing people from other provinces.According to the latest census, 7.5 per cent of citizens of Halifax Regional Municipality moved here from other parts of Canada between 2001 and 2006.It's second only to Calgary among major cities for drawing people from out-of-province.
Most came from Ontario, followed by New Brunswick. Only half as many moved to Halifax from the rest of Nova Scotia.
Combined with immigrants, almost one in 10 residents of Halifax arrived from outside Nova Scotia in the last five years. That's close to the percentage of newcomers found in Edmonton and Toronto. Only Calgary and Vancouver have more.
'National city'
"The face of Halifax is changing," said Fred Morley, chief economist with the Greater Halifax Partnership. "We're becoming a national city, not a provincial city."

He noted that last month, the Conference Board of Canada ranked the most attractive Canadian cities for people to live in. Halifax was rated the seventh-most "magnetic" city out of 27. No smaller cities got a higher ranking.
Morley said the biggest draws in Halifax are universities, colleges and the military. Dalhousie University now gets more than half of its students from outside Nova Scotia.

That presents a "staggering opportunity" that other cities would love to have.

Some stick around when their studies are finished, but the city needs to do a lot better at retaining its young, educated workforce if it's going to prosper, he said.

"The good news is they want to stay. The challenge is to find ways to integrate them," Morley said. "We could do a lot more on all fronts to start nailing people's feet to the ground."

Other than campus activities and specials at downtown bars, Halifax does little to welcome students, he said. Some businesses participate in co-op programs, but there are not a lot of ties between employers and schools.

Job opportunities

While there are some job opportunities, more are needed, Morley said. Anticipated growth in the financial-services sector might help. Incomes are around the national average, but workers can do a lot better in Alberta.

Alberta and Ontario are drawing many people from Halifax and the rest of the province. The Statistics Canada figures reveal that Halifax is near the bottom among Canadian cities for drawing people from its own province.

Only 3.8 per cent of Halifax residents in 2006 moved from other parts of Nova Scotia since 2001. That's 13,330 people, compared with 26,435 who came from other provinces.

"This perception that Halifax is sucking people out of other parts of the province, perhaps to the detriment of rural areas, is not really true," Morley said.

Nova Scotia lost 55,040 people to other provinces over the five-year period, and drew 48,035. The net drop was 7,005.

Morley said if people are leaving rural areas, Nova Scotia would be better off if they chose Halifax rather than Calgary or Toronto. He said it's a "warning sign" that people would bypass the capital and move to other cities.

Western Canada is an attractive draw, he said. Wages are higher, and there are jobs for unskilled workers.

Morley said Halifax needs to focus on drawing people back to Nova Scotia.

"What we need to attract people back is good, solid career opportunities."

bflinn@hfxnews.ca

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Halifax
Rest of province: 3.8%
Other provinces: 7.5%
Outside Canada: 2.3%
St. John's, N.L.
Rest of province: 9.9%
Other provinces: 5.8%
Outside Canada: 1.3%
Moncton
Rest of province: 12.4%
Other provinces: 6.0%
Outside Canada: 1.2%
Montreal
Rest of province: 13.5%
Other provinces: 1.1%
Outside Canada: 4.8%
Ottawa
Rest of province: 6.7%
Other provinces: 4.5%
Outside Canada: 3.8%
Toronto
Rest of province: 11.2%
Other provinces: 1.3%
Outside Canada: 8.6%
Winnipeg
Rest of province: 4.5%
Other provinces: 3.5%
Outside Canada: 4.2%
Saskatoon
Rest of province: 10.4%
Other provinces: 4.8%
Outside Canada: 2.4%
Edmonton
Rest of province: 10.0%
Other provinces: 6.3%
Outside Canada: 3.7%
Calgary
Rest of province: 5.7%
Other provinces: 8.0%
Outside Canada: 6.3%
Vancouver
Rest of province: 12.0%
Other provinces: 3.0%
Outside Canada: 8.3%
- Source: Statistics Canada

Police are reviewing security tapes and charges are expected after a major brawl shut down Auburn Drive High School in Cole Harbour today.

RCMP say several people, some students, others not, were involved in a fight in the hallway outside the cafeteria. The incident soon spread to other parts of the school.

"There were several altercations taking place outside the cafeteria area and just outside the building," said Cpl. Joe Taplin.

"What we're investigating is that several non students showed up at the school and there was an altercation that took place."

It's not clear how many were arrested but police say more than a dozen people were involved in the altercation.

"Right now we're working with school officials to try and determine who was involved in the altercation," said Taplin.

Some students said they were told to stay in their classrooms for up to two hours while police investigated. Several students left early.

One Grade 10 student said she didn't see the fight, but added that it's made her more fearful.

"It's starting to get scary now because you don't know what's going on, you don't know when it will happen or what will happen," said Taylor Dulmage.

Kathleen Higgins, president of the student council, said it was unusual for the school to see such violence.

"A lot of fighting has been going on," said the Grade 12 student. "It started around last week. We know that Auburn is better than this and we've never really had this issue in the past."

Shaune McKinley, a spokesperson for the Halifax Regional School Board, said some of the participants in the brawl managed to get away as police arrived.

"Some of the people who came in to the building quickly fled. There's going to be some efforts to catch up with them and ask them some questions," said McKinley.

"RCMP were on site today as a precaution. There's no question the response was very quick, this was contained very quickly and there were no serious injuries."

Classes have been cancelled for the rest of the day.

The brawl, which began at 1:10 p.m., is believed to be part fo a feud that had been brewing for several days. A fight between two males kept students in their classrooms for almost an hour on Monday.

There were no weapons involved, and neither teen was hurt badly.